Gramps Grassroots 2021

 Some of you may think I disappeared the past week and a half, or caught the delta variant and expired. Well, I did disappear after posting my "Top 100" on Twitter.  I disappeared into the game scores for a bunch of teams that had only one or two game results listed.  I call them "pretenders" because their rating might be based on one great game but their overall rating was not that great.  You see, I spent a lot of time on The Circuit in early July and the EYBL, UAA, and 3SSB tournaments, and once I had those "Contenders" rated fairly, I needed to go back and weed out the pretenders. I think the top 50 is pretty darn close to the top 50 Contenders.  The Circuit may have some other teams in the top 25 but I know the statistical model is a fair representation of the teams, based on head-to-head and comparative scores.  I predicted nearly 70% of those EYBL Peach Jam games correctly over the two weeks of play.  You do not get that percentage of correct wi...

 

 While there was some significant action down in Georgia at the EYBL, it would be neglectful to not check in with the Hardwood Classic + Sunflower Showcase that ran last weekend in Kansas City MO, and Overland Park, KS.  There were 92 17U teams involved. While the overall team competition is a bit lower than EYBL, there are a number of Hardwood teams that would compete well in the EYBL league. Here are Gramps Braggin Rights Ratings for the Hardwood Classic+Sunflower Showcase.  I have listed the teams by rating in the first table and by Pool in the second table. Here are the teams by Pool:

 Here are the top 1800 17U boys teams ratings. Check out my league ratings and EYBL predictions Updated 7/18/2021 Yesterday's post

 It has been a roller-coaster week at the EYBL tournament.  As I stated in yesterday's blog, any team can beat any other team in the tournament and the New Heights Lightning proved that with an upset win over a cold-shooting Brad Beal 17U squad that had been on fire. I still think Brad Beal, Meanstreets, and Team Final are the best of the best but the next few days will prove that out. I added the PH Platform tournament from the prior week so those teams have new ratings.  Meanstreets and Georgia Stars EYBL both shone in that tournament as prep for their EYBL Finale in N. Augusta, SC.  I have hit on 67% of my EYBL predictions this week.  Not bad with all the tightly rated teams and potential upsets.  That tells me the statistical ratings are solid.  Saturday predictions are listed below the ratings. All 1800 17U team ratings Here are the actual prediction results for the first four days.

 It has a wild, up and down week for some teams but not Brad Beal 17U.  They have been strong all week and I do not expect them to falter through the weekend.  Having said that, any of these top ten teams can beat anyone else so you have to bring the A-game every game. Here are my EYBL ratings for Friday.... and how am I doing on predictions.  Yesterday was fantastic but today was like kissing your sister...  56% correct.  You could almost flip a coin and get that many right, right?  But then, I am still cooking at 69% for the tournament and that ain't a coin flip proposition. Here are my predictions with actual spreads and the remaining games below that.

 It was another good day of predicting the UA Live at Lake Point Championship Center in Cartersville, Georgia but the big question is who's the best team?  I will get to predictions in a bit. Nebraska Supreme and Illinois Wolves are both undefeated at 6-0 but they play each other next week so someone will have one defeat.  This game should be a great matchup but I am going to flip a coin and pick Nebraska Supreme to win and I think they have a good chance of going 12-0 after this and next week's play.  I may be wrong.  The Illinois Wolves are a first-class team that might be under-rated. But is Nebraska Supreme the best team?  I am not sure.  I have listed team schedules and opponent ratings below my predictions. After looking at KC Run GMC, DC Premier, Texas Impact 4:13, Wisconsin Playground, and Team Charlotte's schedules, I think the Supremes and Wolves had a slightly easier bracket than these four teams.  DC Premier beat both KC Run GMC and Te...

There are some fantastic tournaments going on right now.   The Recruit Look Bracket Finale at the Elite 32 had a fantastic championship game with Howard Pulley and an undefeated Young and Restless squad, going down to the wire.  Howard Pulley, down by eight, tied the game with seconds left and Y & R hit a three at the buzzer to win. Y&R can play with the best! I have not pulled all the game results together but decided to update all the league rankings below. You can see my UAA predictions  here

 Here's an eye chart for you.   Every 17U team that I have rated.... all 1600 teams. I have posted Thursday predictions  here . I have posted The Circuit league averages and league ratings over  here .

 Here's an updated rating for all of The Circuit leagues.  EYBL is still the best of the best with UAA not too far behind.  I have all of the teams for each league listed below the league averages. Check out the ratings and see how your team does this week?  The difference in rating should be the spread in games with an opponent.  Let me know how I am doing? I have posted Thursday predictions  here . The top 1600 17U rated teams are  over here . I still have Team Final, Team Charlotte, Meanstreets, Brad Beal, Phenom and few others at the top.  Look for these teams to win out in July play.  Yeah, there will be some tough competition, but these teams should end up on top. If you like your team rating, retweet the link.  If you don't like the ratings, retweet it and tell me why. Otherwise, just enjoy the quantification of excellence.  Like I said, I hate polls, especially those based on opinion only. Updated 7/7/2021

 Many of my readers are aware of the accuracy of my Missouri State HS boys and girls basketball ratings.  During the 2020-2021 season, I predicted the winner in over 80% of all games played.  During the 1000+ boys and girls class one to class six districts, sectionals, and state games, I had a similar 80% accuracy rate. So, while I don't have as robust a mathematical model for The Circuit, I feel relatively comfortable predicting winners in upcoming games on Thursday (and added Friday, Saturday and Sunday).  I have listed the winners in bold with the spread and you can check back on Friday to see how I did.   There is a little more swag (surely wild-ass guesses) with the Grassroots program.  Some teams are missing players or don't show up.  The games get out of hand and one team dominates more than expected.  My predictions might be 70%, due to the lower level of data and unpredictability of Grassroots teams, but who else can give you predict...