The Circuit - 17U Boys Basketball Predictions 7/05/2021

 Many of my readers are aware of the accuracy of my Missouri State HS boys and girls basketball ratings.  During the 2020-2021 season, I predicted the winner in over 80% of all games played.  During the 1000+ boys and girls class one to class six districts, sectionals, and state games, I had a similar 80% accuracy rate.

So, while I don't have as robust a mathematical model for The Circuit, I feel relatively comfortable predicting winners in upcoming games on Thursday (and added Friday, Saturday and Sunday).  I have listed the winners in bold with the spread and you can check back on Friday to see how I did.  

There is a little more swag (surely wild-ass guesses) with the Grassroots program.  Some teams are missing players or don't show up.  The games get out of hand and one team dominates more than expected.  My predictions might be 70%, due to the lower level of data and unpredictability of Grassroots teams, but who else can give you predictions like this?

There are a lot of great teams playing and the competition should be fantastic.  I expect there to be some upsets and if a team is miffed by my predictions, I am fine with having them prove me wrong.  Enjoy the games.

I have posted The Circuit league averages and league ratings over here.

Updated 7/10/2021

Day 1 predictions were brutal.  60% accuracy.

Day 2 predictions were on target 70%.  How about KC Run GMC, Nebraska Supreme and the Illinois Wolves?  Should be a great weekend!

Updated 7/9/2021

I came up a bit short on getting 70%.  A number of teams surprised me yesterday and my prediction rate was right at 60%.  Better than flipping a coin but I have work to do.

I have revised ratings based on day 1 and list the day 2 predictions below the day 1 table results.

Who were the big winners from yesterday?  Riverside Church Hawks, Compton Magic, Southern Assault, Washington Supreme, Canada Elite, and New World all surprised me based on pre-June tournaments.  Wishing them continued success today.

These are the original predictions prior to the tournament.

The top 1600 17U rated teams are over here.

Here's my predictions for Thursday through Sunday: