Illinois Wolves 17U rating reviewed

 I was asked about the Illinois Wolves 17U rating.  The Wolves started the season slowly but picked up their game in July and won the UAA tournament to finish their season in fine form.  

Part of modeling 2000 teams is to do a double check on a few teams to make sure that the model is fair and working well.  I go back and look at a team's results and where they are rated.  Based on that analysis, I sometimes make adjustments.  I do this informally during the season as well, often weighting later season games more heavily than early-season games.

So how did the Wolves match up with their competition?  Here's a summary of the games that were listed on The Circuit.   I looked at the spread or differential in the game result, the opponent's rating, the teams' game rating, and finally, the opponents final rank:

The Wolves had a nice July, averaging a 142.8 rating vs. UAA opponents, however, early in the year, they had bad losses to three top EYBL teams and a mediocre Yanders Law Blue, coupled with close losses to 3D Empire, Griffin Elite Quattrachi, and C2K Elite.  Their April-May team rating was 131.8

The tournament win in July was significant but the teams the Wolves played averaged a 131 rating and an average ranking of 218th.  While the UAA is a fine league, it does not hold water to the EYBL.  The Wolves lost to the three EYBL teams ranked in front of them by an average of 21 points.  Against all EYBL teams, the Wolves rating would be 132 and place them about 150th in the rankings.  It would be difficult to place the Illinois Wolves in the top 5 or 10, given their performance against these top 20 teams.

Taking the entire season into account, their unweighted rating was 137.3 but, with the strong performance in July, I weighted those games more and arrived at a 139 final team rating and a 28th position in the rankings.

I think the Wolves had a wonderful season and I congratulate them on it but I think the rating is fair, given another look at their season.